demosEUROPA Young Analysts Commentaries Series
Making voting a trend again
Connecting falling voter turnout across Europe with the European Parliament’s democratic deficit
Maria Wilczek*
This commentary was prepared by Maria Wilczek during her internship at demosEUROPA in September 2013.
On the 22nd of September 2013, the polls opened to 62 million Germans. 44 million accepted the invitation. The electoral turnout bounced back up to 71.6% following the post-war record low of 70.8% in 2009. Germany’s voting culture is a precious commodity on a continent that has for decades seen very low and steadily falling voter turnout in all national and European election. However, these national voting trends are no longer a matter contained within a country’s borders but increasingly also a European matter. Falling civic participation undermines the EU’s democratic legitimacy. Thus, as campaigns for the upcoming 2014 European Parliamentary election begin, the EU should approach this problem not only though its institutions but also as a deeper socio-economic trend to be tackled on the political arena.
Germany stands as one of the few European bastions of good civic engagement. Yet looking from a broader time perspective, even here voter turnout in both national and EU elections has worryingly been on the downward trend for decades. In 1983, 89.09% of the eligible electorate voted, 79.08% in 2004 and 70.78% in 2009. The core of Germany’s non-voters is structural: the democratic dropouts are often the undereducated, the unemployed and the poor. In the week running up to the election, a pollsters showed that only 13% of Germans thought the election would decide the future of Germany, and the trouble with each person’s calculated approach is the amplified result.
It is, however, an interesting paradox that through not voting certain communities have begun to exercise their democratic right to influence political agenda. The German “Non-Voter party” is an example of an organised non-voter base which has been absolving its members of any potential guilt tied to not participating in elections. These academic-dominated formations look down on the grubby business of politics – what German philosopher, Richard David Precht, called “un-philosophical politics” and the “collective loss of the ability to create utopias” – and wish to communicate their disillusionment through electoral abstention.
This long-term trend of falling electoral turnout is by no means unique to Germany. The United Kingdom national election participation has too been progressively falling on par with the country’s European Parliament election turnout: 61.99% (1979), 58.98% (1984), 58.41% (1989), 56.67% (1994), 49.51% (1999), 45.47% (2004) and most recently 43% (2009). However, it is Poles at the polls that have been scoring record lows. Since 1980 the near-perfect turnout of 98.87% has dropped very sharply into the 40%s, where is has largely remained since 1991. Poland’s average turn out of 47.31% still lags far behind other post-communist states with 60-70% figures. As for the European election turnout in Poland, only 20.87% thought it important to vote in 2004, and 24.53% in 2009.
From a numerical perspective, if on the morning of the elections the steadfast non-voter base in Poland, Romania, Hungary or Lithuania decided to vote alongside regular voters, their opinion alone could lift a single party into absolute majority power from scratch. Of course, as unlikely as this is, the size of the group that is unrepresented through the ballot box still begs the question of representative legitimacy of the government. For the voters, the virtues of civic participation include a political and social education, a feeling of social responsibility, and higher trust in your choice of representatives. A more accurate representation of society’s preferences helps avoid distortion by some sectarian interest groups who often happen to be more politically active. In Poland and Germany, among others, EP seats are allocated on the basis of regional turnout in EU elections.
In a similar manner most European countries yield an even lower (and still falling) numbers of votes in the European Parliament elections relative to their own national ones. All-European electoral turnout has been on the drop since 1979, with numbers falling from 61.99%, to 58.98%, 58.41%, 56.67%, 49.51%, 45.47% and finally in 2009 – 43%. This actuality has been ascribed to dull campaigns, failure to mobilize voters and a lack of understanding of the European Parliament’s distant and complex mechanisms. While the authority of state parliaments can always fall back on their historic legitimacy and a national identity of all citizens, the EP lacks the same popular footing. Herein sparked the issue of the “democratic deficit” of the supranational authority. The EU needs the democratic boost before another five years of difficult top-down decisions to stabilise the continent.
In a survey by eurobarometer, around 72% of respondents agreed that voting in local or national election is an effective way to influence political decision-making. However, figures dropped when the public was asked the same question about their participation in EU elections – only 54% think it is an effective form of influence. Highest regard for the EU’s system of participatory democracy came from Romania (71%), Malta (69%) and Italy (65%), while the lowest was recorded in the Czech Republic (54%), the UK (54%) and Slovenia (53%). When asked about ways to increase European Parliament election turnout, 84% agreed that providing information about: the system of EP elections, the impact of the EU on their daily life, the programmes and objectives of candidates and parties in the European Parliament would raise turnout. Thus, already two weeks ago, on September 10th, the European Parliament launched a €16-million initiative to raise turnout at next year’s EU election. The informative campaign leading up to the election will first explain the legislative powers of MEPs, next coordinate interactive events concerning hot EU issues and remind people of the election date with the slogan “Act, React, Impact”.
The falling voter turnout across the continent in national elections should be a lesson for the European ones. It suggests that the problem is not exclusively institutional – the deeper issue is sociological. While the EP’s campaign is likely to address the problem of undereducated voters, it will do little for those actively deciding to abstain. What will however help is restoring the confidence in politics of the disinterested and moderate groups. In this way Angela Merkel’s “safe pair of hands” attracted active support in this month’s election. Tracing the migrations of the non-voters from the 2009 election, a notable 1,130,000 decided to break their track record of abstention in order to vote for the CDU/CSU and 360,000 for the SPD. An even larger base of all-European non-voters is a potent source of latent electoral potential, which remains for the in the political class to address.
A voter turnout campaign has to hinge on something – thankfully, this European election will be markedly different from the previous ones. Not only has the European Parliament’s legislative power received a meaningful boost but, moreover, voters will have a substantial effect on election of the next President of the European Commission. This leaves scope for campaign strategy. The aforementioned eurobarometer survey showed that six out of ten Europeans believed that to raise turnout, politicians should be firm on their proposal of a candidate for the role of President of the European Commission. A single figurehead’s aura of plebiscitarian legitimacy forges a more personal and comprehensive connection with the electorate. Further, more than seven out of ten think that political parties should display in all campaign material information about the European political party with which they are affiliated.
In an effort to catch up with the times, over €5-million of the EC’s budget for the initiative will be devoted to mobilizing social media platforms, including Twitter and Facebook. Social media has popularized political discussion – in the first half of the election time of September 22nd, over 300,000 Bundestag-election-related tweets had bounced around twitter. During last week’s election around 173,000 tweets commented on Angela Merkel and Peer Steinbrück’s head-to-head. During the 2009 election, around 55,000 community members linked themselves to the Parliament on its MySpace and Facebook profiles. Five years later, these numbers could balloon.
While the 22-25 May 2014 vote might seem distant, campaigns are already building momentum. It is not only in the interest of the European institutions, but also of their politicians to mobilise voters. If the vote is to be popular again, a multi-tiered approach is needed. On the European level, there is a call for educating and raising awareness of the challenges facing the EU and its realistic impact on the lives of 50 million citizens. On the societal level, awareness of civic rights and responsibilities needs to be reawakened, where social media may prove indispensable as an out-reach tool. Learning from the German example, voter turnout in both national and European parliamentary elections is connected to a nation’s political culture of trust and allegiance, and that largely rests in the province of politicians. To encourage the much needed voter support for the European elections, this time both the EU institutions and the political class should be fully hands on.
* Maria Wilczek was an intern at demosEUROPA – Centre for European Strategy in September 2013.
