The transition to electric vehicles and increase in the share of biofuels, shifts in logistic systems or more effective use of conventional fuels – what changes await Poland over the years 2015-2030? The report on the potential challenges with regard to low-carbon transport development in Poland by 2030 prepared by WISE includes three alternative scenarios of changes that will result in reducing the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by transport.
According to the prognosis of WISE analysts, the steady growth of Polish economy over the years 2015-2030 will lead to increase in demand for all modes of transport. This will give rise to greater demand for fuel: petrol, diesel fuel and LPG. Technological progress will, however, allow us to effectively respond to this demand, so that it will not generate higher consumption and greater emission from transport. At the same time, the expected revival of railway system and the emergence of electric vehicles on Polish roads will bring about doubling of electricity demand for transport.
The report stressed that these processes will be significantly limited if there is no state intervention. WISE analysts considered three alternative scenarios that stipulate for the focusing of administration activities on the following areas: improving of the fuel efficiency of conventional engines, promoting alternative fuels and supporting logistic changes towards modes of transport with lower emission intensity. For each scenario, a detailed forecast of the demand for energy and fuels by 2030 was presented. There was also estimated the potential and cost-effectiveness of reduction measures in the form of the curve of marginal costs of emission reduction in transport.
The starting point for the report was a detailed analysis of national and European strategic and programme documents, as well as measures that affect energy consumption and emissions in transport, which have already been analyzed. On that basis, as well as taking into consideration good practices from other European countries, the report determines particular parameters of modeling, and technical and organizational means available that are possible to implement by 2030. We encourage you to read it!
Report The evaluation of functions of changes and values of set parameters used for the estimation of forecasts for emission from transport, depending on potential measures and the level of their implementation was commissioned be the Ministry of Infrastructure and Development and prepared by WISE in 2015. Full text is available in Polish – we encourage you to read it!
Authors: Maciej Bukowski, Franciszek Jackl, Aleksander Śniegocki
