In just a 1.5 year after winning a second term in presidential elections, Dilma Rousseff faced the prospect of dismissal. In March, 2016, as much as 68 percent of the Brazilians were in favour of dismissing her from the post – how this happened and what it means for the future of Brazil is explained by Paweł Zerka in a weekly newspaper Kultura Liberalna.
It is hard to imagine that the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, could be saved at this stage. Next Wednesday or Thursday [May 11 or 12] The Brazilian Federal Senate will vote on starting the impeachment procedure against her.
The decision of the Senate expected this week means in practice that the current Vice President, Michel Temer, will take over her duties for at least several months. Over the next six months, Senate proceedings against Dilma will have to be held (nota bene, they will be presided over by Supreme Court Judge, Ricardo Lewandowski, who has Polish roots). If, after all of this, two-thirds of the Senate vote for removing the current president from office, then she will be banned from running for any political office for 8 years, and Temer will remain President until the next election in 2018.
At the moment this is the most likely scenario. Nevertheless – just as in a ‘House of Cards’ series – we should be prepared for further plot twists. Before the next voting Dilma can step down on her own so as to avoid making a spectacle of herself. If she fails to do it, and Temer will take over her duties, he, too, will not be able to fell secure in his post. There is still a risk that Superior Electoral Court will annul the whole presidential elections from 2014 if it finds evidence for the winning coalition illegally financing it. In addition to this, Temer’s political position will be rather shaky due to economic problems of Brazil and the high social cost of the planned fiscal adjustment that he proposed.
Author of the comment: Paweł Zerka, Head of research, Foreign policy and international relations
