Economists agree that the situation in Greece does not pose a direct threat for Poland.
Strong US dollar and Swiss franc, highly volatile financial markets and a stock market slump in both Europe and Asia. These were the global consequences of the recent events in Greece. The question is, how is the situation going to unfold? At the present stage it is difficult to draw any conclusions, since it is still by no means certain that Greece will leave the Eurozone.
– I remain optimistic, and an agreement can be reached at any moment, at least until Tuesday – Mr Maciej Bitner, the Head Economist at WISE, told “Rzeczpospolita”. – After that, things will be more difficult still, as the bailout plan agreed with the previous government will have lapsed by then. However, if the Greek society accepts the conditions of the bailout plan, I believe that the Eurozone will maintain the offer which it has made in the previous week – he added.
Let us assume, however, that it is the most dire imaginable scenario which actually occurs. At the present stage it is difficult to envisage just how the relinquishing of the common currency would look like. In Mr Bitner’s view, the most likely scenario is that the government, unable to inject the banks with more capital in order to extend the period of financial assistance provided by the European Central Bank, will force them to convert all their assets and liabilities from euros to drachmas. The problem is, however, that the Greek currency will be lacking in credibility. Ordinary people will still wish to make settlements in euros, even if they can only do so in cash, of which there is plentiful supply.
– I don’t believe that the government would have the capacity to force its citizens to use the drachma – Mr Bitner said, adding, however, that such a state of affairs (an all-out panic among Greek banks, coupled with the refusal of the Greek government to repay its debts) would result in a stock market slump and the weakening of the currencies of developing countries (including the Polish zloty) against the US dollar and the Swiss franc. If the European policymakers are able to explain this issue to the markets in an appropriate and attractive manner, then I believe that the initial nervousness on the markets will be quick to subside and may only last for about a month.
From our perspective, the weakening of the resurgent economic growth in the Eurozone may prove dangerous. It is due to the rebounding economy in Western Europe that our own economic growth was able to pick up the pace.
– If this tendency is allowed to slow down, the economic situation in Poland will experience a significant decline. Another consequence may be a decrease in trade volume between Poland and Greece; however, since this trade volume is relatively low, I don’ think that this will have a significant impact on the economy – Mr Bitner pointed out.
