‘The results are not surprising, we need to remember, however, that these are just opinion polls and the final distribution of seats may still change’, stated Maciej Bitner for parlamentarny.pl. Bitner stresses that Law and Justice’s (PiS) unchallenged reign is not yet a foregone conclusion.
‘There is apparently high level of participation, some commissions even run out of voting cards, so the final results may vary slightly from the polls. Moreover, the KORWIN party is evidently close to the election threshold, and when they cross it, the allocation of seats will be altered and PiS will be forced to look for a coalition partner.’, assures Bitner.
According to him, even an unchallenged reign of PiS will not pose much of a problem. ‘I’m not one of the people prophesying that PiS victory will lead to the end of democracy and a retreat from the market economy. It seems to me that those who believe so were fooled a little bit by the pre-election rhetoric. During the campaign, a party’s message must be simplified and slightly radicalised as a matter of course. That said, the practice of governing is ruled by different laws. I am convinced that not all of the campaign slogans will be implemented; everything will be done taking into account economic realism’, predicts the economist from WISE.
From PiS ruling Bitner fears ‘a certain lack of respect for legal procedures, for existing patterns, and a certain tendency to short-term solutions and interventions.’ Still, he emphasized that in this respect, ruling as yet Civic Platform had a few sins of their own. The action that passed unnoticed was, in his opinion, suspending the application of prudential thresholds. Bitner fears that the Government of PiS will be more inclined to such actions.
The strong standing of the Kukiz Party is also regarded as the election surprise. ‘This party was definitely underestimated in polls. The leader was recently criticised for the electoral debates, mostly, however, by political commentators, while Kukiz’s electorate liked his performance, as he spoke frankly and openly. Professional political analysts did not take this into consideration’, commented Bitner.
The second surprise is the absence of a left-wing party in the new Parliament – this is the first such case in recent history. Although with respect to the economy, Bitner found some left-wing threads in the programmes of several groups. He considers Polish People’s Party (PSL) the most left-wing in the Parliament, with PiS following closely.
According to the expert, the current elections signify the end of left-wing politics ‘the Democratic Left Alliance style’; there is potential, however, to create new formation on this side of the political spectrum. ‘It’s not my political cup of tea, but I don’t rule out the possibility of Barbara Nowacka’s circle and Together Party (Razem) unifying to establish a strong, authentic left-wing party, which will take power in four, or at most eight, years time.
