If it were up to Mr. d’Hondt, the next European Parliament President would be a Pole

Piotr Maciej Kaczyński*

(All acronyms explained below the text)

You must have heard about the Belgians hitting above their weight in European affairs.  A well-known Belgian mathematician has a major impact on how European political top jobs are distributed. According to the d’Hondt method, looking for who could be the European Parliament next president, we should look to the East…

In the aftermath of the European elections a pro-European grand coalition was formed. EPP and S&D forced the European Council to appoint Mr. Juncker as the head of the European Commission, and then smoothly followed with approval of the Juncker College dubbed as TeamJuncker (with a scheduled drop out of one of the candidates for Commissioners). As part of the deal, Mr. Schulz, S&D’s rival candidate for Commission’s top job, renewed his mandate as the President of the European Parliament.

The smaller positions inside the Parliament were distributed according to the famous d’Hondt method, with the largest groups, the EPP and the S&D taking majority of top jobs. In the process they have snubbed the extreme anti-European group from getting their allotted one chairman of a committee. The deal at the time was that the presidency of the house would go to the S&D in the first half-term, and would be reversed to the EPP in the second half of the term. The talk of the town these days is that Mr. Schulz would not mind to extend his 5 year tenure for another 2.5 years, and that Mr. Juncker would not necessarily oppose such a potential solution. But is it to these gentlemen to decide in the first place?

The d’Hondt method rules the distribution of power among the national delegations inside the EPP, too. So, if the original agreement was to hold, and the next European Parliament President was someone else than Mr. Schulz, it would be up to the EPP to appoint the house’s next head. Inside the EPP there are five largest national delegations that together dominate the rest of the group: the Germans (34), the Poles (23), the French (20), the Spanish (17) and the Italians (15). The Germans lost a little bit of their significance during the last elections. With the appointment of Mr. Weber as the new head of the EPP group, (if it was only left to the math of Mr. d’Hondt) it should be the second-in-line national delegation to determine who should be the EPP candidate. So it happens that it is the Polish delegation.

This is the same national political grouping (composed of two parties, PO and PSL) that has provided the EP with its most recent non-Schulz president, Jerzy Buzek, and the seating president of the European Council, Donald Tusk. They enjoy major jobs inside the house, with three committee chairs (ITRE, AGRI and AFCO) and two EPP coordinators (JURI and DROI). Most recently, the national coalition PO/PSL have lost the most valuable battle: back home the Polish EPP is moving to the opposition. After eight years in the waiting, the local ECR party (PiS) forms the new government. Good news for Mr. Cameron, probably.

Still, if it were only up to the math, it would be the Polish EPP to put forward a candidate. It would not have to be a Pole, but for the speculative purpose, let us assume it would be a Pole, who could help in the electoral campaigns in 2019 (both domestic and European elections). Three names come to mind. First is Mr Jan Olbrycht, the head of the Polish national delegation in the EPP and a long standing MEP, who speaks multiple languages and is well regarded inside the group. Second is Mr Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a major EP voice (alongside his German counterpart Mr Elmar Brok) on foreign affairs. The third is Ms Danuta Huebner, once a European Commissioner and a chairwoman of two committees (REGI in the past and AFCO now). It has been a while since the European Parliament had a female leader.

If it were up to Mr. d’Hondt one of those individuals would be the next EP’s head. But is it up to Mr. d’Hondt alone?

*Piotr Maciej Kaczyński publishes widely on European Affairs. He is former CEPS Research Fellow and political adviser in the European Parliament.