Report: HALFWAY - WiseEuropa

– KPO can accelerate Poland’s green transformation. The money foreseen in the plan for the decarbonisation of the Polish economy should be allocated to investments in security, including energy security, and Poland’s raw material independence. The greater the ambition in this regard, the more calmly Poland could prepare for the coming energy crises related to lower availability of gas, oil and coal on world markets – write Authors of the Halfway. The average level of ambition of the National Recovery Plan is a risk to its success report.

The delay in the approval of the National Recovery Plan (Krajowy Plan Odbudowy, KPO) has meant that it will be implemented in a different macroeconomic environment than originally envisaged. At the European level, the idea for the KPO originated as a way of stimulating the economies of European Union (EU) Member States following the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the eleven-month delay in the acceptance of the Polish KPO has changed the external realities in which it will be implemented, as well as its function. From a macroeconomic perspective, the Polish KPO was accepted at a difficult time caused by high inflation, rising interest rates and the weakening of the zloty. This has translated into an increased attractiveness of the loan measures envisaged as a component of this instrument.

Given the current geopolitical situation, the late acceptance and time constraints of the KPO (end of 2026), the document should not be seen only as a measure leading to post-pandemic economic recovery, but also as an investment in Poland’s strategic security. Therefore, the level of ambition required by the European Commission (EC) should be a minimum, not a target. In order to improve Poland’s long-term strategic security, the investments envisaged in the KPO should strongly support the zero-carbon transformation of our economy. In the current geopolitical situation, in view of the energy crisis, the spectre of recession and difficult macroeconomic conditions, independence from fossil fuels and their imports should become a priority area of state action.

Poland’s KPO is well below the needed level of ambition, but is not far from the plans in other EU countries. Our analysis of plans in other Member States indicates that the KPO projects for other countries to date are also far from the high level of ambition for a ‘green recovery’. This may suggest that the potential of KPO is not being fully realised, but in the case of Poland this must not become an excuse for not having the expected effect of accelerating the transformation and catching up with the rest of the EU.

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