How megatrends influence public policies

Demographic changes, technological progress and the challenges posed by resource depletion and climate change are the main focus of the report “Megatrends: from acceptance to action”. WiseEuropa is presenting a publication that investigates the processes, which affect the most important aspects of Polish development and energy policies.

Megatrends are irreversible, long-term processes that define real area of choice for the public policy. Actions that aim to ignore or try to counteract them in isolation are, in the long run, doomed to fail and would be harmful to the economic growth, while their early identification and adjustment to the new conditions allow for achieving important developmental advantage. The next decades will bring far-reaching changes in three areas: demographic structure, technological change, as well as resource-related and environmental challenges. These areas are correlated through the feedback loops: on the global scale, population growth increases the pressure on natural resources and multiplies the effects of geopolitical crises; resource pressures constitute a stimulus for the development of new, low-emission and resource-efficient technologies, which in turn benefit from the information technology boom, due to a more efficient management of raw material circulation as well as novel ways of energy generation and consumption in the economy.

The main reasons behind this state of affairs are the shortcomings in the academic, administrative and political base, which do not predispose Poland (or other countries in the region, although to a lesser extent) to identify the emerging challenges early enough or to address them strategically through actions undertaken by public and private entities within the appropriate regulatory and institutional frameworks.

One of the key gaps in the national strategic thinking is an approach to climate policy that ignores its long-term impact on the European security and prosperity. Omission of this strategic dimension of climate policy results in misunderstanding of the position of the other EU member states (including Central European countries) by the Polish authorities and their full or partial refusal regarding any need for change of the status quo. This translates into a permanent inability to formulate a strategic response on a domestic level and a growing risk of permanent loss of competitiveness by Polish energy companies, as well as ineffective actions on the European arena, where Polish position is isolated.